Future climate policy looks to hydrogen and its synthesis products with great importance, but how could the demand for hydrogen develop globally? According to a report, a new meta-study coordinated by Fraunhofer ISI addresses this question and re-evaluates more than 40 energy system and hydrogen scenarios within the HyPat research project. The study provides statements on the range of possible future developments of hydrogen demand, globally, in the EU, and China until 2050, and differentiates between various demand sectors. The focus is on scenarios with ambitious greenhouse gas reduction targets.
Hydrogen and its synthesis products are globally regarded as important future energy sources that could be used in many different sectors. For example, there is an ongoing controversial debate about the role hydrogen will play in transport in the future, and specifically its use for passenger cars and trucks. There are also potential applications with demand for hydrogen in other sectors, such as industry and buildings.
As far as specific applications are concerned, the biggest demand for hydrogen is expected in the transport sector, according to the study, in both absolute terms and relative to total energy demand. The meta-study calculated an average hydrogen share of 28% for the EU’s transport sector in 2050 – based on the total energy demand of the sector – compared to 14% for China and 16% worldwide. However, transport is also the sector with the widest range, and therefore the highest degree of uncertainty concerning future hydrogen use. H2 synthesis products will be used in areas such as international shipping and aviation, but the possible future use of hydrogen is less clear in other large fields
of application such as passenger cars and trucks.
Prof. Martin Wietschel, who coordinates the research work of the HyPat consortium, estimates the future global significance of hydrogen as follows: “Our evaluations underscore that hydrogen will play an important role in future global climate policy – but will not be the dominant final energy carrier of the future. In order to reduce greenhouse gas emissions globally, measures to save energy and direct electrification based on renewable power, for example, in heat pumps, electric vehicles or heating networks, are seen as the most important levers. On the other hand, hydrogen does play a relevant role in specific applications where other technologies are either technically or economically not feasible.”
